Research Reports from the Department of Operations
Document Type
Report
Publication Date
11-1-1970
Abstract
An answer to the question of whether to buy, wait, or sell when trading in wheat futures is sought through the use of heuristic mechanical trading rules. Two basic models are examined. In the first, an updated price band is maintained about the daily close. The relationship between a given day's closing price and the previous day's price band is the signal to buy, wait, or sell. In the second approach, a linear regression is calculated for closing prices over time, and a tolerance band is established about the calculated line. Both fixed and variable bands are considered. Whenever a closing price falls outside the band, a new line is calculated. The slope of this new line is the signal to buy, wait, or sell. Both models trade at the opening price of the day following receipt of the signal. These approaches were evaluated using Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures price data for the four fiscal years July 1963 through June 1967. Results, statistical tests on results, and a comparative evaluation are included. The discussion throughout the paper is from the standpoint of a flour milling company trading in wheat futures although most results are easily carried over to a purely speculative operation and/or trading in other commodities. Results indicate that the combination of speculation and hedging recommended in these trading rules can at least triple profits which would result from simple "full hedging."
Keywords
Operations research, Wheat trade, Futures market, Grain trade, Hedging (Finance), Speculation, Regression analysis, Flour industry, Commodity futures
Publication Title
Technical Memorandums from the Department of Operations, School of Management, Case Western Reserve University
Issue
Technical memorandum no. 209
Rights
This work is in the public domain and may be freely downloaded for personal or academic use
Recommended Citation
Brown, William J.; Crabill, Thomas B.; and Dean, Burton V., "Mechanical Rules for Trading in Wheat Futures" (1970). Research Reports from the Department of Operations. 300.
https://commons.case.edu/wsom-ops-reports/300