Research Reports from the Department of Operations

Document Type

Report

Publication Date

8-1-1971

Abstract

This paper describes the methods and results of an exploratory development project evaluation (EDPE) experiment aimed at developing a method for quantitatively evaluating research and development (R&D) projects. Conducted at the U.S. Army Material Command, the experiment utilized a modified DELPHI Method, employing iterative feedback among a panel of judges to reach consensus on critical factors affecting R&D projects. The panel assessed factor weights, project-factor values, and overall project scores over four sessions. Linear regression models were developed using weighted scores, with additional statistical tests performed to evaluate panel agreement, bias, and model predictive capability. Key findings include the sufficiency of a small number of factors for linear modeling, minimal bias among panelists, and inconclusive predictive capability of the model. The experiment underscores the feasibility of consensus-driven evaluation for R&D projects and offers recommendations for future studies.

Keywords

Operations research, Research and development projects, Project management--Mathematical models, Delphi method, Consensus (Social sciences), Regression analysis, Decision making--Mathematical models, Military research, United States. Army--Research

Publication Title

Technical Memorandums from the Department of Operations, School of Management, Case Western Reserve University

Issue

Technical memorandum no. 247

Rights

This work is in the public domain and may be freely downloaded for personal or academic use

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