Research Reports from the Department of Operations
Document Type
Report
Publication Date
6-1-1973
Abstract
This paper examines the rapid growth of evangelical churches in America and introduces a simulation-based forecasting model, GOCHURCH, to aid in planning for future attendance. The model addresses the challenges faced by churches striving to meet aggressive growth targets while managing facility and program capacity. GOCHURCH predicts attendance numbers and provides structured descriptions of individuals influencing the growth process, using a Markovian framework to categorize the population into five states. A supporting questionnaire gathers data relevant to forecasting, and an initial simulation output demonstrates the model’s applicability to capacity planning. By analyzing membership trends and offering predictive insights, GOCHURCH helps church administrations optimize resources, prevent overcrowding, and achieve long-term growth goals. This tool offers a systematic approach to understanding and managing the dynamics of church expansion.
Keywords
Operations research, Church growth, Evangelicalism--United States--Forecasting, Forecasting--Mathematical models, Markov processes, Computer simulation, Simulation methods, Computer programs
Publication Title
Technical Memorandums from the Department of Operations, School of Management, Case Western Reserve University
Issue
Technical memorandum no. 305
Rights
This work is in the public domain and may be freely downloaded for personal or academic use
Recommended Citation
Rasmussen, John J., "GOCHURCH : A Simulation Model for Forecasting Church Growth" (1973). Research Reports from the Department of Operations. 518.
https://commons.case.edu/wsom-ops-reports/518