Research Reports from the Department of Operations
Document Type
Report
Publication Date
1-1-1972
Abstract
It was desired to estimate the time required and probability of success in the development of a new biocide, DS. Since many alternate paths would be considered but not developed, the normal deterministic activity networks—such as CPM or PERT—could not handle this problem. Instead, an extended decision box network coupled with PERT was used to create an algorithm with two degrees of freedom: probability of success and time distribution. The results of the algorithm indicate a 96% probability that at least one path to commercial DS will be developed. The expected time for development is 111 workdays, with a 90% probability of completion within 122 days. The most probable process is predicted to be the one currently in pilot plant use.
Keywords
Operations research, PERT (Network analysis), Decision making--Mathematical models, Probabilities
Publication Title
Technical Memorandums from the Department of Operations, School of Management, Case Western Reserve University
Issue
Technical memorandum no. 252
Rights
This work is in the public domain and may be freely downloaded for personal or academic use
Recommended Citation
Norin, Edward M., "Use of a Decision Box/Pert Network for Predicting Probabilities and Time Durations" (1972). Research Reports from the Department of Operations. 623.
https://commons.case.edu/wsom-ops-reports/623